"Free yourself from the rigid conduct of tradition and open yourself to the new forms of probability."-Hans Bender. Before I delve into the concepts hypothetics (which might sound just like an another complicated word to the average reader but it’s really an another abstraction of my mind), I would like to spend a few words telling you about what the rest of the blog entries in my blog are going to be about. If you have not guessed it already, the rest of my blog posts will have a probabilistic spin to it. I have always found probability to be one of the most common form of math used in diverse fields and probability being one of the only subjects (and related concepts) which actually makes some sense to me in engineering(thanks to my WACO probability and random processes professor from 4th semester). Some of it might sound very abstract but I will try to keep it as simple as possible.
Yes hypothetics is a concept that is derived from the word hypothesis. Hypothesis is the processes of postulating a reasonable set of assumptions based on known facts. It is basically just another complicated word scientists came up with, so that they could justify their research. Hypothesis by itself is nothing but a term used to predict the outcome a processes that is going to be performed. Hypothetics in its basic form can be described as analyzing future events with a certain probability of occurrence, based on present and past events. It is the attempt to answer the frustrating question which we ask ourselves in times of failure and dissatisfaction, “What if?". Yes it is the most common question that we ask ourselves and try to come up with answers which don’t matter anymore. But what if we ask this question before a certain event has occurred and derive the possible set of outcomes from it and choose the best "what if" based on our objectives. Hypothetics in a nutshell is based exactly on this concept. It is the process of attaining a definable future based on the myriad different outcomes which are under our control in the present.
The illusion that our eyes perceive, that we refer to as the realm of our existence (or just our world) has an infinite number of possible outcomes which all have a certain probability of occurrence. The possibilities might be infinite, but all of the probabilities for a particular time reference summed together is 1!!!! Or in other words we might be able to predict a few possible outcomes in the near future with probability of occurrence proportional to our present and past actions. This given in basic terms would be rationalizing of our future possible outcomes. Allow me to provide a simple scenario to better understand this concept. You are in a very happening night club in the city on a Saturday night and the closing time is just a few minutes away. Considering the amount of alcohol consumption you might find the relative simplicity of hypothetics a reasonably way of plotting the rest of the events of the night (which will be your immediate future, and will also be forgotten the next morning, if you know what I mean). You find this very attractive looking chick dressed like she wants some attention, who is standing by herself beside the bar counter (probably waiting for someone to approach her). Now your objective would be to get this girls number. There are a various different ways you could approach this situation, but the sample space of a reasonable future is always finite. So you could directly approach her make a decent conversation and ask for her number. In this case there are only two possible outcomes that would be reasonable. Either you get it or you don’t, so you stand a 50% chance of success (Which in terms of probability is quite reasonable). Now if you want more than just her number you are put up with a more complex problem statement which would require gauging and factoring in more possible outcomes with varying probabilities (If you know what I mean). So plotting your "what if" step by step is very crucial in these processes. But it is always best in setting a sort of benchmark probability, in the sense that you might get more than you asked for.
Well, you might be thinking -- easier said than done. Yes it is easier to analyze an event once it is over and ponder on the different "what ifs" and satisfy yourself with the outcomes which can only make a difference in our pseudo existence of our minds. It is more complicated and interesting to device a way where the outcomes of our actions can be narrowed down into a finite set of possibilities with varying probabilities. It is this device which will help us reach our desired goals. Probability would have never been theorized if man was not curious to look into the future. It is this essential curiosity which drives every aspect of our actions into a stable and desirable future. Theoretically it could be possible to predict ones future based on hypothetics. The complexity of the prediction depends on the number of variables we consider. The more number of variables the more number of possibilities. As higher number of possibilities exist, so do the number of infinitesimal variable probabilities. The complexity and magnitudes predictions can vary from person to person. But overall we can reasonably predict our future based on our present and past events.
Now my fellow reader it is important for you to understand hypothetics is essentially an abstraction of my mind and the way I have started looking at things, which have worked give or take worked out for me. So if you have actually made it to this point without getting annoyed or confused or if the thought "why did I just waste my time reading what some possibly jobless fuck posted about random shit going on his head" did not run in your head. The sole purposes of the existence of my blog is churning out my thoughts on the web, and maybe get your views on this subject. So if you have reached this point cursing me (which you are free to do on the comments section below) or not, I would highly appreciate it if I could have a one of your mouse clicks on my sense meter below. 1 star being nonsense and 5 stars being yeahsense.
